[SMM Analysis] Market Speculative Enthusiasm Soars, Overnight Multiple SHFE Nickel Contracts Hit Limit-Up

During the night session on January 6, 2026, multiple SHFE nickel contracts hit limit-up, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2602) closing up at 147,720 yuan/mt, while the LME nickel 3M contract rose to an intraday high of $18,785/mt. Recent sudden changes in U.S.-Venezuela relations have sparked concerns about the stability of global resource supply, driving significant gains in safe-haven precious metals such as gold and silver, with market sentiment quickly spreading to the nonferrous metals sector. Against the backdrop of earlier expectations for supply tightening policies in Indonesia and the sentiment-driven rally in nonferrous metals, speculative funds flooded into nickel futures contracts, pushing the weighted open interest for SHFE nickel above 370,000 lots.

Spot side, on January 7, the price for SMM #1 refined nickel ranged from 144,300 to 156,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 150,150 yuan/mt, up 6,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 8,500-10,000 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 9,250 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -200 to 300 yuan/mt. However, actual spot transaction activity remained weak, as high nickel prices posed significant challenges for downstream users, whose acceptance of high-priced nickel plates was limited.

Inventory side, the latest LME nickel inventory stood at 255,000 mt, while SMM's social inventory of refined nickel was approximately 59,000 mt, with inventories continuing to build recently. Against the backdrop of the sharp rise in nickel prices, smelters showed strong willingness to increase production; SMM refined nickel output in December increased by 22% MoM and is expected to rise by another 18% MoM in January. With no improvement in downstream demand, there is potential for significant inventory buildup ahead. In the short term, close attention should be paid to the actual implementation of Indonesia's quota approvals. The battle between "expectations of tightening" and "actual surplus" in nickel prices is set to intensify.